| Election Year | MEP Votes | AVP Votes |
|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 19,804 | 26,476 |
| 2013 | 17,653 | 33,103 |
| 2017 | 22,061 | 23,376 |
| 2021 | 20,700 | 18,335 |
| 2024 | 17,572 | 17,876 |
Oranjestad, Aruba - The 2024 parliamentary elections show a narrow victory for the Aruba People's Party (AVP) with 17,876 votes, just above the Movimiento Electoral di Pueblo (MEP), which garnered 17,572 votes. However, a deeper analysis of historical data shows how government periods have had a major impact on both parties' vote losses.
Government Periods and Vote Loss
Between 2009 and 2017, the AVP governed for two consecutive terms, while the MEP was in power between 2017 and 2024. Comparing vote losses during and after these periods of government offers important insights into voter loyalty and political dynamics:
Greater Long-Term Loss for AVP
Although the AVP lost fewer votes during its reign, its total loss between 2009 and 2024 is significantly greater:
- Voting in 2009: 26.476
- Voting in 2024: 17.876
- Total loss of voice: 8,600 votes, a decline of 32% over 15 years.
In contrast, MEP's overall loss has been smaller since 2009:
- Voting in 2009: 19.804
- Voting in 2024: 17.572
- Total loss of voice: 2,232 votes, down 11% over the same period.
Challenges and Trends in Government Periods.
- Decline in AVP after reign: Although the AVP remained relatively stable during its reign (2009-2017), the party has struggled to regain voters' trust since losing power in 2017, with a sharp loss of 5,500 votes between 2017 and 2024.
- Greater loss MEP during reign: The MEP's larger loss during her reign (4,489 votes) highlights the challenges of governing in a complex political and economic environment, where voter expectations may not have been fully met.
- Shifting voter loyalty: The sharp contrast between the AVP's previous stability during its reign and its struggles after 2017 suggests that government performance has a major impact on voter loyalty. The MEP's greater loss during her reign reflects the difficulties of maintaining support in a changing political landscape.
Conclusion
The 2024 elections demonstrate the cyclical nature of voter confidence in Aruba's political landscape. Although the AVP lost fewer votes during its reign (2009-2017), its inability to recover after 2017 indicates significant challenges in regaining voter confidence. On the other hand, the MEP's greater loss during her reign highlights the inherent difficulties in meeting voter expectations.
