In the 2024 general elections, the Aruba People's Party (AVP) experienced a challenging election year. The party lost ground compared to 2021 and did not achieve an increase in votes, despite strategic changes in the list of candidates. Indeed, internal shifts between candidates caused dramatic changes in individual results, which may have contributed to the party's collective loss.
General Voice Loss
Although the AVP gained 18,335 votes in 2021, that number dropped to 17,872 in 2024, a loss of 463 votes. Instead of gaining votes by adding new candidates to the list, the strategy proved counterproductive.
Michiel Eman: A Wrong Strategic Move
Michiel Godfrey "Mike" Eman, former prime minister and leader of the AVP, experienced a significant drop of 1,391 votes. Although he remains a figurehead as party leader, he was ranked 29th on the 2024 list of candidates.
- Internal Dynamics: This unexpected move within the list seemed to send a message of renewal, but resulted in confusion and possibly disappointment among loyal Eman voters.
- Overlap in Voices: Much of his traditional support seemed to shift to Wendrick Cicilia, whose promotion to the No. 1 position on the list saw a remarkable increase of 4,412 votes.
Wendrick Cicilia: Winner By List Position
Wendrick Cicilia's vote gain was impressive, but turned out to be largely internal. His gains came mainly from former Eman voters, rather than a growing electorate. This highlights that the shifts within the party list did not lead to broader appeal beyond the existing ASF base.
New Candidates, No New Votes
The strategy of adding new faces to the list had a contradictory effect:
- Dilution of Voices: The addition of new candidates split the support base rather than expanding it.
- Negative Impact on Party Leadership: Marginalizing Eman undermined unity within the party and potentially gave voters an image of internal division.
A Critical Analysis
The election results show that the AVP did not benefit sufficiently from the candidate slide:
- There was no significant growth in the number of votes.
- The redistribution of support points caused an internal restructuring with no external gain.
Conclusion
The AVP's strategy of internal shifts and additions to the list did not have the desired effect. On the contrary, it caused vote loss and internal tension. For future elections, the party will have to focus on attracting new voters rather than redistributing existing support.
