With the formation of a new government in Aruba on the horizon, Gerlien Croes and her party, FUTURO, find themselves at a crucial crossroads. With three seats in parliament and a growing reputation as a reformist party, FUTURO may play a key role in forming the next coalition. But will this lead to Croes' appointment as prime minister, or will she remain an influential coalition partner?
The decision revolves around two possible coalitions: a collaboration with the Aruban People's Party (AVP). Whether the Movimiento Electoral di Pueblo (MEP).. Each choice has implications for Croes' ambitions, the role of FUTURO and the broader political landscape of Aruba.
Scenario 1: FUTURO partners with AVP - A Chance at the Premiership?
A partnership with AVP would give Croes the greatest chance of becoming prime minister. With nine seats, AVP, along with FUTURO's three seats (and possibly other small parties), has the ability to form a majority coalition.
Benefits of Croes as premier in partnership with AVP:
- Numerical feasibility: FUTURO, as a coalition partner, can demand that Croes assume the role of prime minister.
- A reform-oriented leader: Croes can emerge as a bridge builder between the traditional base of AVP and the reformist vision of FUTURO.
- Joint opposition to MEP: A partnership with AVP strengthens the opposition front and provides a clear alternative to the current administration.
Disadvantages of Croes as prime minister in association with AVP:
- Public skepticism: Many voters would see this collaboration as a compromise of her reformist principles, given her previous criticism of AVP.
- Possible resistance within AVP: AVP leaders may have difficulty accepting Croes as prime minister, which could cause tensions within the coalition.
- Policy agreements: To achieve the premiership, FUTURO may be forced to make concessions on its reform agenda.
Public perception:
If Croes succeeds in securing the premiership, it may profile her as an innovator and connector. But if reforms fail to materialize, she risks damaging her reformist image and losing supporters.
Scenario 2: FUTURO collaborates with MEP - Focus on policy over position
A partnership with the ruling MEP party, which has eight seats, would focus more on policy implementation than leadership. Given the existing MEP leadership, Croes would likely have to accept a key ministerial role rather than the premiership.
Benefits of working with MEP without premiership:
- Policy synergy: MEP and FUTURO share common priorities, such as transparency and social equity, making it easier to implement reforms.
- Enhanced credibility: A partnership with the ruling party can position FUTURO as a party that values results over power.
- Coalition stability: A partnership with MEP provides a stable basis for governance, which reduces political uncertainty.
Disadvantages of working with MEP without premiership:
- Missed opportunity: FUTURO supporters might see this as a missed opportunity to claim the premiership.
- Risk of overshadowing: As a smaller partner, FUTURO runs the risk of being seen as an afterthought within an MEP-led coalition.
- Leadership challenges: Croes may struggle to distinguish himself in a government led by MEP.
Public perception:
A partnership with MEP without a premiership would appeal to pragmatic voters who value effective governance over ambition. However, Croes must achieve visible policy results to avoid being seen as sidelined.
Conclusion: Will Gerlien Croes Become Premier?
The road to the premiership for Gerlien Croes is full of opportunities and challenges. A partnership with AVP offers the clearest chance for this role, but risks undermining FUTURO's reformist identity. A partnership with MEP focuses on policy implementation over leadership, but requires Croes to accept a secondary role.
The final decision will depend on Croes's ability to balance ambition, principles and pragmatism. Whatever path she chooses, the implications for FUTURO and Aruba's political future will be profound.
